What about construction-related work? Enter, the American Institute of Architecture:So what's going on with starts? A big part of the jump came from condos, apartments and townhomes. And a fair amount of that activity flowed from warmer-than-expected weather. If that leads you to think maybe we should give the data another month or two before we start drawing trend lines, I'd be likely to agree with you. As one analyst cautioned, we might be looking at a "weather-related fluke."
It could also be a data-related fluke. Journalists almost never report on statistics precisely, which I'm sure drives all manners of social scientists batty. Here's the actual wording from the press release: "Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 583,000. This is 22.2 percent (±13.8%) above the revised January estimate of 477,000, but is 47.3 percent (±5.3%) below the revised February 2008 rate of 1,107,000."In other words, housing starts could be up 36%, or they could be up 8.4%. It's a range. And, technically, we're only 90% sure the real figure is in that range.
“Despite a higher [Architecture Billings Index] score than last month, we are likely to see light demand for new construction projects through much of the year,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “There is hope that the stimulus bill will result in more project activity, but that is also dependent on banks easing lending standards in the months ahead." [emphasis mine].
CR tells us what this means, "Since the index is still well below 50 (anything below 50 means contraction in billings), this suggests non-residential investment in structures will decline all year (no surprise!)".
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