Thursday, February 26, 2009

Home Sales by Home Stock

Dean Baker notes that, "In the last two months, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen by 563,000 (13.5 percent) even as home sales have been near 20 year lows." You wouldn't think that these two datapoints would correlate, and Dr. Baker hypothesizes (bold & italics mine):
There are two possible explanations. First, many foreclosed homes don't appear in the realtors' data. It is possible that we are seeing more bank owned properties that are being sold at auction, but are not listed as inventory. In that case, the NAR data is becoming a less accurate measure of
inventory.

The other possibility is that many would be home sellers are holding back in the expectation that the market will improve. This would imply that the market may be flooded with homes at some point in the future, as soon as it shows any sign of an uptick. That is also not a terribly good story for those hoping for prices to stabilize any time soon. It likely also means a rather unhappy story for those opting to wait. They may be looking at much lower prices when they do eventually put their homes on the market.

I wonder what this means for the Miami-area market?

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