Friday, February 27, 2009

Friday Fun: How conservative are they?

Brendan Nyhan points us to National Journal's interactive ideology rankings. The app is interesting - it told me that Jeff Miller from Florida's 1st district (which covers the western portion of the Panhandle) ranks as the 6th most conservative member of the last Congress.

On the other hand, the soon-to-be Dr. Nyhan is quick to note that the information given is compiled with less than the best methodology. Either way, it's a cool time killer.

Budget Pushback

The Wonk Room has the following clip from Fox News this morning:


The link has more data, but the quick and dirty response to Mr. Wallace is the following:
  • Less than 2% of “small businesses” would be affected by Obama’s tax change
  • A “small business” is very often an employed rich individual declaring business income
  • Most “small businesses” don’t create jobs
  • Rich people declaring business income are more likely to be “passive investors”

The point is, this isn't the Right defending the health of the economy as much as it is the Right defending their rich benefactors.

The future of the American Right

I can clearly remember my emotions after the 2004 election. I remember the near endless articles, columns, and posts about what went wrong. Looking back, it seems like the writing mixed mourning and placelessness. And despite that, two years later the Democrats succeeded in a mid-term Congressional victory.

Today, it seems as though the right is doing the soul-searching. I think that it is important for those of us on the left to listen to what is being said and reserve judgement. And they are saying important things, things that recognize the reality that many Americans face:
As we all know, income stagnation is something that most conservatives and Republicans have spent years pretending was not happening, because it did not fit in with the assumption that working- and middle-class Americans were thriving as part of the “greatest story never told.” It is the failure to acknowledge and address all of these things along with the preference for using symbolic gimmickry that begin to account for the lamentable states of conservatism and the GOP. There is also the war, but movement and party have become so invested in it that I have my doubts whether they can ever recognize its role in discrediting both with the public.
Along those same lines, Ross Douthat notes that, "The Right has a messaging problem, yes - but it also has a message problem." Which all seems to boil down to a call for policy that is more robust than the discredited supply-side approaches that have been the modern Right's cornerstone.

Lifting the Cuba travel ban

One thing I want to avoid in this blog is foreign policy. Every now and then, though, I think it makes sense to dip into that world, especially when it makes sense from a local perspective. With that in mind, the Miami Herald points out that language in the new budget would, "kill enforcement of regulations that restrict travel to Cuba by Cuban Americans." The Herald Editorial Board thinks that the Budget approach is the wrong way in accomplishing this. Instead, the Board argues that Obama not de-fund enforcement but re-engage in the Cuba debate, noting that they don't believe the trade embargo should be eliminated.

I think that this is a convenient way for the Herald editors to have it both ways. They highlight the Budget proposal (which, by the way, would represent a cost savings) they disagree with while pushing an approach they know will end in no change.

Meanwhile, some of the research shows (pdf) that "sanctions, including the embargo, have no relationship to some optimal policy which would lead the regime to open up the political process." Anyone have something to balance this against?

(ht SFDB)

Rise and Shine




Photo by Flickr user victor nuno used under CC license.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Unemployment Explosion

I'm am not even going to bother summing up this piece...you need to read it yourself. Here is the tease:
In the last 13 months, the number of unemployed people living in rural America has increased by 297,000. All but 15,000 of those jobs were lost in one month, December 2008.
That is a lot of pain right before Christmas.

Home Sales by Home Stock

Dean Baker notes that, "In the last two months, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen by 563,000 (13.5 percent) even as home sales have been near 20 year lows." You wouldn't think that these two datapoints would correlate, and Dr. Baker hypothesizes (bold & italics mine):
There are two possible explanations. First, many foreclosed homes don't appear in the realtors' data. It is possible that we are seeing more bank owned properties that are being sold at auction, but are not listed as inventory. In that case, the NAR data is becoming a less accurate measure of
inventory.

The other possibility is that many would be home sellers are holding back in the expectation that the market will improve. This would imply that the market may be flooded with homes at some point in the future, as soon as it shows any sign of an uptick. That is also not a terribly good story for those hoping for prices to stabilize any time soon. It likely also means a rather unhappy story for those opting to wait. They may be looking at much lower prices when they do eventually put their homes on the market.

I wonder what this means for the Miami-area market?

Things left behind

(ht Yglesias)
One of the goals of this blog is to attempt to be evidence-based. It's very easy to make statements, it's harder to make statements that are supported by research. As with all goals, I'm sure that I will fail, but it's important to try to ground what I say in verifiable work.

With that said, this bit of research confirms what readers might have already known:
[A] content analysis of leading conservative magazines shows that most have preponderantly failed to take pro-liberty positions on sex, gambling, and drugs. Besides many anti-liberty commissions, the magazines may be criticized for anti-liberty omission—that is, failing to oppose anti-liberty policies. Magazines investigated include National Review, The Weekly Standard, The American Enterprise, and The American Spectator.
An interesting side note is that this research comes from George Mason University, which is not exactly a liberal institution.

US Budget Overview

I've barely started looking over this (pdf). The historical information is very enlightening. It is conceivable that the information presented is propaganda. We'll see what response the document gets, but I think it will be ignored. Anyhow, here is a quote and handy chart speaking to wealth information you've probably already heard (bold & italics mine).

By 2004, the wealthiest 10 percent of households held 70 percent of total wealth, and the combined net worth of the top 1 percent of families was larger than that of the bottom 90 percent. In fact, the top 1 percent took home more than 22 percent of total national income, up from 10 percent in 1980 (see Figure 9, Top One Percent of Earners). And these disparities are felt far beyond one’s bank statement as several studies have found a direct correlation between health outcomes and personal income.


Tom Rooney hypocrisy

(via PBP)
This is old news, but galling nonetheless:

Freshman U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta, and every other Republican in the
House voted against a Democrat-drafted $787 billion economic stimulus package.
But now that President Obama has signed the measure into law, Rooney has added
his signature to a Florida plea for $2.7 billion in stimulus money for public
schools.

I'd like to know how Congressman Rooney can sign on to this while stating that he "cannot support the Democrats’ expensive stimulus bill that levees our economic future on the backs of our children while spending billions on projects that will do little to stimulate the economy". There is no statement about this on his Congressional website.

Putney: Do we know Charlie?

(ht Daily Pulp)
Michael Putney asks the question:

Is Charlie the genuinely concerned Republican moderate/populist he professes to be (``I work for the people, they're my boss'')? Or is he a slightly ditzy, disconnected lightweight who has succeeded on the strength of great political instincts, an appealing personality and a Clintonesque (Bill, not Hillary) talent for making you feel like you're the most important person in the room for however long you're with him?
I want to ask Putney, who cares? What exactly does psychologizing about the "real" Charlie Crist accomplish? Thinking along these lines, it seems to me, culminates in a kind of lazy analysis. It's thinking that get you "Bush wins an election because he's the candidate we'd like to have a beer with"-type sound bytes.

By turning policymaking into character-driven narratives, you end up creating a knowledge gap for the elctorate. We know what we need to know about Crist by looking at his accomplishments. Anything else (including whether or not he's popular, a frat boy, or gay) is, or should be, meaningless.

Retirement Survey

(h/t) Wonk Room
While there is a great deal of media attention on the financial crisis, you never really know what other people know about what is going on. So, when you see poll results noting that 75% of surveyed Baby Boomers fear that they won't be able to fully retire, it becomes clear that people are very aware to what the country is facing. The numbers drop if you pull out the age range to only 32%, a high figure nonetheless.


Photo by Flickr user hira3 used under CC license

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Adam Putnam hypocrisy

via Miami-Dade Dems
Friedgator has an interesting post on Congressman Adam Putnam (R-FL) regarding his voting record on the TARP (for) vs ARRA (against). The argument being made is that the TARP legislation, geared toward helping banking interests, received a yes vote from the legislator. ARRA, geared toward helping citizens, was rejected. Furthermore, Putnam's agricultural interests received federal support after the 2004 huricane season.

So to recap, an self-serving record from a legislator poised to run for a secretary seat.

Red & Blue by the numbers

I am very happy that Dr. Andrew Gelman joined Nate Silver and the 538 team. Dr. Gelman contributed yesterday with further support from the 2008 election for the contention that income predicts Republican vote more strongly in red than in blue states.

Interestingly, one of the graphs at the link labels our fair state as purple.

Shiller: Home prices will fall further

via Clusterstock
Professor Robert Shiller (namesake of the Case-Shiller Index) notes that home prices have not reached their bottoms. Click on the link above for a video of Henry Blodgett's discussion with Dr. Shiller, but the graph below is scary enough for me.




Because the data is at the national level, I am left wondering if this means for us in South Florida. Did the rest of the nation's housing stock stay high, while ours dropped? Is this a case where the predicted 50% drop will come from areas other than South Florida, Southern California, etc.?

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: FL

In case anyone missed this, the Obama federal stimulus plan will fund (or help fund) a number of important programs/agencies in our state. I'd like to know why our repubican congressional delegation voted against Florida receiving the following:
  • 206,000 jobs
  • $134.7 million to support law enforcement efforts
  • $2.2 million in Internet Crimes Against Children grants
  • $9.6 million in Senior Meals programs

Crist Budget Recomendations

Gary Fineout has the goods. Here is what stands out for me, $2.5 billion dollars of added debt. I want to be clear, I am on the side of government debt in a financial crisis. On the other hand, it would be nice to have a sense of how we'd go about re-paying these bonds with our current taxation structure (pdf).

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Why Mike Pence is wrong

In the clip below, Congressman Mike Pence (R-IN) talks about the need for the US government to follow the example of the the average American citizen and/or business:



Yglesias, in turn, responds. I want to fill in any gaps that may appear in that post. Congressman Pence is making a case for a spending freeze. It would be fair to imagine that such a freeze would look a bit like the
United States Federal government shutdown of 1995, which is to say that government employees (including law enforcement, scientists, lawyers, diplomats, etc.) did not work. In 1995, these employees were paid. Pence's spending freeze would literally mean that they would not get paid.

It is fair, therefore, to say that many of these employees would have to turn to the private sector to find work. Right now, however, the private sector is laying people off. Hence the following:
Lay off a government worker, and he’ll just be unemployed. And as an unemployed government worker, he’ll spend less at local stores leading to more layoffs in retail and more excess inventory in manufacturing. This kind of thing is how recessions become depressions.

Corruption Investigation in PBC

via PBP
This is a bit of a shock to the system, all members of the Palm Beach County Board of Commissioners have been asked to appear before a state grand jury. I don't have much to say about this other than wondering about if this will have any effect on the County's infrastructure applications and what the effects would be on the County's bond rating.

Thoughts on Redistricting

via Brendan Nyhan
Being proactive about redistricting sounds like a good idea to me. Having said that, I worry about wasting valuable resources in an effort that we believe may work, but are unsure in which ways. To that end, I wanted to highlight the following work (McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal):

Both pundits and scholars have blamed increasing levels of partisan conflict and polarization in Congress on the effects of partisan gerrymandering. We assess whether there is a strong causal relationship between congressional districting and polarization. We find very little evidence for such a link.
Now, partisanship isn't my worry in regards to gerrymandering. My worry is an inaccurate representation of the electorate (which is to say, a blue state with more red legislators). To that end, something like the Fair Districts Florida petition drive seems to be a step in the right direction as long as we understand what will (and won't) be the consequences of success.

The Blame Game

Regarding the previous post, Yglesias puts it more succinctly:
I just don’t think it’s the responsibility of individuals to know that all the experts, and all the conventional wisdom, are secretly wrong.

On taking a stand

Via SFDB, a couple of South Florida bloggers are up in arms about plagiarism by a new Miami Herald columnist, Jackie Bueno Sousa. I agree with Rick that the standard for plagiarism being set here is pretty low. Beyond this, there are more important things to take issue with in the piece:
I believe that Main Street is as responsible for the current economic crisis as Wall Street. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone; that NFL play rules are beginning to coddle quarterbacks; and that all elected officials should be subject to term limits. I believe that man really did land on the moon; that history will redeem George W. Bush; that life begins after conception but before birth; and that nature will destroy us before we destroy it.

I have two problems with this. First, the idea that "Main Street" is as responsible as Wall Street for the current crisis is a convenient cover. Sure, it sounds right. But with this logic, I could also blame Vioxx users for their own deaths as well, I mean if they had only known better...

But they couldn't have known better since the professionals they hired to help them understand the products were not operating on good faith, as the Miami Herald has reported.

Which goes to the second point I want to make about this. The speech made by Costner in Bull Durham is intended to be a corageous statement (not everyone will take a stand for soft-core porn). Sousa's post isn't particularly corageous at all. It's right-wing pablum.

Monday, February 23, 2009

The Credit Crisis, Visualized

I saw this first on NPR's Planet Money, but I think it is threatening to become viral.


Trying to understand the "fiscal summit"

To begin with, the "fiscal" portion of the title of today's summit refers to federal government expeditures. To wit, the New York Times reports that, "[the] president said that the bank-rescue plan and the broader economic stimulus program are necessary not merely to jolt the economy but because the country has “long-term challenges — health care, energy, education and others — that we can no longer afford to ignore.”

Ezra Klein notes that despite the coverage, the important aspect of the summit was the decidedly non-sexy structural shift of the budget "moving to a 10-year budget window rather than the traditional 5-year window."

Why does this matter? Sen. Max Baucus, the Senate Finance Committee Chairman, alluded to a 10-year window because such a window would "ensure time for the initial investment to give way to the eventual savings, may prove very important as the debate grinds on."